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I would use the toddler bed while you can. My thought is it wont be more than 1.5 years, like 2.5-4 MAX? Maybe even less.

We are converting the crib to a toddler bed soon. Why get something else and have to store the crib?

We just accidentally transitioned our 20 month old. Was NOT intending on doing it this early but a hospital stay in a twin bed convinced her she was done with cribs. We already had a twin set up in her room, so we didn't bother converting the crib. I have to say, I'm loving the twin option. Bedtime takes a little longer now because she wants me to sit with her for a while, but sitting or even laying with her on the twin bed is very comfortable and sure beats leaning over a crib or crouching on the floor next to a toddler bed. So I voted for twin. Also, when she woke up from her nap she called me and actually asked if I'd get in and snuggle with her. It was the sweetest thing and something I never got to do when she was in the crib!

Given his stubbornness, I would try (in this order):
* crib conversion
* crib mattress on floor
*twin mattress on floor

ETA: That said, I don't think you'll have any problems going straight to a twin mattress on the floor. We went to a full for a specific reason (below) but if that's not relevant for you, I don't think you need to rush out and buy a mattress.

We went straight to a full mattress on the floor (so I would have space to lie down with him when he wakes up at 5am...) and he loves it but gets a little overwhelmed in the big space and has trouble falling asleep. We have been about 50% sleeping in bed, 50% going back to crib (he requests it when he cant fall asleep in the bed). We added a bumper in the middle of the bed so it is closer to crib/twin size, and that helped him feel secure.

Part of what made the transition overwhelming for him (he still LOVES it) is that the new bed also came with a pillow, blanket, and no sleep sack....all of which were different from his crib. We removed the pillow and blanket, and gave him his sleep sack back, and it has helped a lot though we're still not fully there!

We converted crib to toddler bed a little before she turned 2.5. She loved it!