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My second was smaller than my first. I'd wait.

I'd ask for a sweep! I had one at 38w and went into labor the next day! Ds2 was still 8 lb! First was 8.11 at 40w3d

I would see where I was at in the next week or so, and ask for a sweep too...of favorable then I would prob go for the induction. My sister was just induced and she was 1cm and 70% effaced, so similar, and her induction went really well.

I think inducing is asking for trouble. 10lbs us not that big in the big scheme of things esp because you have a proven pelvis. Second time deliveries are usually easier. This doesn't seem like a good medical reason for induction.

I delivered my second boy, a 10 lb baby, in January at 40+3. If I had it to do all over again, I would get induced early! Pushing out and recovering from a 10 lb baby is no joke.

@CarrieLouWho: it went great for me. Second time even better! Both times I wasn't really "favorable" and it went well. Both were over 9lvs too

It sounds like you're talking a small range of dates. So it may not really matter!

I would not induce just because there's a chance that I might be having a big baby. You've already proven that your body can push out a pretty good sized baby and there is absolutely zero guarantee this child will even be as big as your first.

I would definitely wait. Seems like your body works wonderfully at getting babies out on schedule and pretty quickly! And I don't know that it would work as well if you got induced. I was forced into an induction (bp issues) and labored 18 hours before ending in an emergency c-section. LO was sunny side up, tilted, and stuck in my pelvis. She was never coming out on her own having descended that way. (And my milk didn't come in for 6 days, I always had a horribly low supply, we totally failed at BF, etc).

Obviously I'll never know what would've happened the other way, but I'll always wonder if I'd have been allowed for her to come naturally rather than force her if she would have come down better and if I'd have been able to birth her naturally and breastfeed. I feel like neither she nor I (my body anyways) were ready for labor.

Possibility of a larger baby wouldn't warrant an induction for me personally. There's no triable way to tell what baby's size is and I firmly believe that the majority of the time our bodies can handle birthing the baby we grew.

I had a similar choice due to baby size and high bp and weighed all the concerns, and decided to have my kid get the f out! I was miserable, my ob was fine with it, so I went for it. I see no point in waiting it out if you feel like total crap. Unfortunately my hospital hit their highest patient load that week while changing to a computerized system, so I kept getting pushed back

So I walked and walked and walked. I was really sick on my due date, so I went to get checked and went into labor during the NST.

I'd wait. I had a much better experience birthing my daughter spontaneously than I did with my sons induction. And you have a proven pelvis. Also the babies weight is not a concern so much as the head or shoulder size. Fat is soft and some babies are just long. Go with your instinct but to me it's your doctors reasoning doesn't seem to hold a lot of water.

@CarrieLouWho: the second time around my milk came in a day earlier. We supplemented a bit on the first day but probably would've regardless. We've been EBF since and dd2 just turned one. My recovery was just about the same as #1. I would say there was more spotty bleeding longer but that's to be expected with a toddler at home as well! I tore about the same Bc she had a huge melon but didn't feel it at all, probably due to adrenaline despite no epi.

Do what feels right to you and your doctors recommendations. No one knows you pregnancy and comfort level like you and your OB! (((Hugs))) I'm sure it will be all great at the end. P.S. I had a scheduled due date induction with #1 and she came two days early by herself. I was hoping the same would happen with #2 but clearly she needed a little nudge.

I didn't vote, since the decision is up to you, but I was induced at 39 weeks and it went perfectly.
My dr. recommended it because I had been 3 cm dilated since 36 weeks (and she wanted to be the one to deliver). We also factored in weather concerns since it was winter and we had an hour drive.
She did sweep my membranes the day before and I was having contractions, but couldn't really feel them. The morning of they were about 5 minutes apart so I feel like I would've gone that day regardless.
They started the epidural at 8, broke my water at 10:30, contractions didn't hurt until after that, around 11 and I got the epidural. Baby was born at 2:30 after 3 rounds of pushes and the vacuum to help.
It was a great experience, but I don't have natural-labor to compare it to, and I was 'ready' since I had been dilated for so long.
Do whatever you're comfortable with!

I did not read through the responses but my situation was similar so I wanted to share.

My first was 5 days early and 8 lb 15 oz, no gestational diabetes.

With my second, I was having ultrasounds about every 4 weeks to monitor a potential kidney issue and due to my history, so I had growth estimates all along. LO2 was measuring big, but my belly did not measure big. I did not have gestational diabetes. At the 38 wk scan LO2 was about 90%ile big, but not so big that the doctor encouraged induction. At my 39 wk appointment, I scheduled induction for the day after my due date.

I went into labor naturally 2 days before my due date. My baby was big, 9 lb 5 oz, so very similar to the growth scan at 38 wk percentile wise.

But labor was so much easier the second time. First labor was like 18 hrs with 2 hrs of pushing and a necessary episiotomy, my second was 7 hours, with 2 pushes and very minimal tearing, no stitches. I have no regrets about waiting until after my due date to schedule the induction and I think I would have been happy to have induced if I hadn't gone into labor naturally.

Good luck with your decision and with labor!