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The additional factor for you might be that you get fewer diapers per box as LO goes up in size.

We go through way more diapers per day than you per kid, so cloth is much cheaper for us. The increase in water bills is really slight in our house. We've spent about $600 for our stash (for twins), and were spending $3-5/day on disposables, so we'll break even in 6 months or less.

I'm pretty sure we broke even a few months ago, but we don't pay for our water and E goes through like a dozen diapers a day (down from 18-20 a day when he was a newborn), so for us it was definitely more economical to go with cloth.

I think one of the major cost savings come into play when you factor in using the stash for more than one child.

Ditto to second baby but also being able to resell them after you're done. Cost wasn't the deciding factor for us and I don't track the math but honestly when I use disposables when traveling I spend twice as much time from leaks etc. I wanted to ditch cloth after one month but I'm glad we didn't now that were more settled.