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I think Trump might win the popular vote, but I do not think he will win via the electoral college.
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@BlueWolverine: me too! Going forward I think the election season should be only 6 months. Cram all the debates, primaries, pick a VP, have conventions in half a year. These two years long campaigns are so draining.
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@lilteacherbee: this is exactly how I feel.. and I am hoping the same thing you are...
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@agold: sadly I do. Especially if Hillary wins. Trump has said things like "do whatever it takes" "at all costs". I just don't see his supporters losing gracefully.
Just saw this link which is strongly for Hillary winning. The graphic at the end that shows the road to winning is interesting. Shows that winning a few key states could be all you need.
http://nyti.ms/29MYiv0 -
@BlueWolverine: Unfortunately, I think that even when Election Day has come and gone, if HRC wins, this will be far from over. If she just eeks out a win, Trump will fight it. If she wins by a landslide, he'll say it's rigged. And if Trump wins, we'll all revolt.
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I live in a blue state but am surrounded by vast majority conservatives due to the two career fields I am in - airline and military. And they're extremely vocal trump supporters/Hillary bashers ("she needs to die a horrible death" etc.) Most of my FB friends are of the airline pilot/military demographic (which is overwhelmingly white male) and it was actually shocking to me when one guy came out as a Hillary supporter. Even with all that though, I can't say I ever thought Trump would actually be elected.
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This is a scary thread! I'm surrounded by Trump supporters in my red state, but our electoral count is low, so I haven't been able to fathom that Trump actually would win. I'm counting on other parts of the country to prevent it. I will be frozen and scared if I watch the results and see it called for Trump!
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I'm hoping the NYT analysis is correct, but I'm very nervous. FWIW, DH has never voted for a non-Repub for president (even when he wasn't thrilled with the candidate) and I'm 90% sure he voted for Hillary this year... He likes to tease me and keep me guessing, so I don't know for sure. I'm hoping there are more people like him out there this election cycle.
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@littlebug: yep. Remember Florida in 2000? And that was a civilized election...
Actually I think that's where it all went wrong. If W hadn't won? stolen? Florida, 9/11 would have still happened
but maybe we wouldn't have invaded Iraq that had nothing to do with it. Maybe there would be no ISIS, no civil war in Syria, no Trump. But that's all just guesswork. Got to keep moving forward.
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I think Trump will take Iowa. They both had rallies in Cedar Rapids on Friday last week... Hillary had hundreds to Trumps' thousands.
I think 'most' Trump supporters are voting that way because they are republicans, not because they necessarily support him as a person.
I still think Hillary will become president but this thread makes me doubt that. -
Hillary. Because honestly, I NEED to believe it.
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I'm so scared. I keep trying to reassure myself- like if he wins in can't be THAT bad. But I think it really will be that bad.
I do believe that if voter turnout is good Hillary will win. -
It's all so terrifying to me & I really don't know how I see it playing out. I know LOTS of people who are very dissatisfied in the choices this election & are voting opposite to their "typical" leaning--though most of those are R's voting for Clinton. It is astounding to me that at this point in time we don't have better 3rd party choices. US elections should not be binary when there is such a large contingent of unaffiliated & Independent citizens.
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The polling data really aren't great, and are worse this year than in other recent elections, so hard to say. Non-response rates are super high, and higher for repubs than dems. We have no way to know if the people who don't respond are like the people who do, so re-weighting to even things out is tricky...
I am so sick of this election. I read this gem today: "Before Mr. Trump spoke [at a NH rally today], one of his backers, John H. Sununu, a former New Hampshire governor, mocked the Clintons. “Do you think Bill was referring to Hillary when he said, ‘I did not have sex with that woman’?” he asked the crowd." Honestly, if I hear one more suggestion that HRC is unfit to be president specifically because she's lousy in bed...Trump himself tweeted "if she can't please her own husband, how is she going to please america." Grrrr.... I am so sick of the sexism of it all (and there have been really sexist remarks made on both sides of the aisle)
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HRC for sure in my state but who will become president? I have no idea....
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So Im like the least afraid person I know in general, but I am legitametly afraid of some Trump supporters, regardless of the outcome. Im actually considering keeping my kids home with me Wednesday....I'm on a swing state that is a coin toss at this point and people are unpredictable...
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@Truth Bombs: I am desperately hoping there are also a lot of diehard republicans who will also not admit that they're voting for Hillary (including some members of congress) to cancel this out.
I cannot believe it is this close. I do not know what I will do if he wins.
I am going to make some Hillary phone calls tomorrow morning. I will not be able to live with myself if I don't do something more active to help.
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I am believing with every fiber of my being it will be HRC.
As others have said, Five Thirty Eight is reassuring to me, as well.
I am scared of what happens if it is very close (really either direction).
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HRC. But I'm voting for Johnson.
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@LibbyLou: have there been trump supporters rioting already? I feel like I've seen lots of anti-trump rioters outside of his rallies, but I haven't seen anti-Hillary rioters.
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There are a lot of baby boomers in this country and a lot of them are voting Trump because they can't stand Hillary. They also are reliable voters. It's worrisome, too to hear that the minorty vote in early voting is way down from 2008/12. Not terribly surprising but Hillary needs people to come out and vote to win.
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Oh my gosh as a Canadian I'm just sitting back and taking this all in with awe. I can't imagine Trump being president at all. I hope Hillary wins.
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I see Trump winning the popular vote, but there is no way he is getting to 270. I just hope it isn't another hanging chad debacle.
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Stuff like this makes me afraid of Trump voters. I think guns should be banned from polling places, and I think this guy in particular should be ordered away for intimidating voters. This also happened not far from where my family lives, which makes me nervous.
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Clinton. I will never believe Trump will win. If he does, my faith in the country and her people is lost.
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@MrsSCB: I can't believe that's legal! Voter intimidation isn't, so how is what this Trump supporter doing okay??
I have to believe that Clinton will win, but I already have a pit in my stomach that I might be wrong.
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Scared.....
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@Adira: me too. I was thinking there is no way Trump would win. But now I am getting worried. I do not like HRC but she is far better then him. I am seeing so much in favor of Trump on FB.
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@Smurfette: Yes! So many new Trump signs have been popping up around where I live and it's making me soooooo nervous. I'm going to have a pit in my stomach until we hear the results, I think.
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I have no idea...but it all makes me ill. The way people have acted during this election season is just so depressing...
The sad thing is - I want the election to be over with so badly, but at the same time am terrified to wake up Wednesday morning. Both sides have supporters who will behave badly when they lose...
I live in a swing state this election and the hatred I have seen from all parties involved is just pathetic...
Thankfully I am voting at a new location this year - last election I had people yelling and shouting at me as I walked in - who would present themselves that way in an effort to sway a vote?
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Trump was almost attacked at a rally. Not cool!
FBI advised over the weekend nothing new was found on Huma's laptop. I really hope its not too late for people to come out in support of Hillary.
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@MrsSCB: Wow, that's scary. I'm frightened by the lengths at which Trump and his supporters are going to create an unsafe environment for voting. I still can't get over how blatant Trump is about his tactics and yet nobody blinks an eye to them.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go
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@Mrs. Lemon-Lime: I thought it was just a regular protester, who Trump called out into the crowd and told his security to take away (as he always does). And then one of his own supporters shouted, "gun!", which make the crowd go crazy, made the security guards tackle and take down the protester, who in fact did NOT have a gun nor ever claimed to have one. But he was dragged out pretty violently and Trump was taken off stage.....for nothing, basically. Seems like more Trump BS to me.
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@Mrs. Lemon-Lime: Do you mean the event where he was rushed off stage? He wasn't almost attacked. There was a person up front who was protesting, but Trump wasn't in danger. Someone shouted gun, and the Secret Service rightfully doesn't mess around with that. But there was no gun. http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/05/politics/trump-rushed-off-stage-at-campaign-rally/
Or did something else happened that I completely missed? Not going to lie, I'm almost ready to go in media black out until tomorrow night and I'm usually a news junkie. I love your six month campaign idea.
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@BlueWolverine: @Anagram: sorry, busy weekend...just getting excerpts of what's been happening. So glad there wasn't a weapon involved.
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@Mrs. Lemon-Lime: http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/06/donald_trump_no_longer_controls_his_twitter_account.html
This is what happened. The fact that the crowd attacked and beat and choked a man that was holding a "Republicans against Trump" sign is so scary. So, so scary.
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Pantsuit Nation is the only thing keeping my blood pressure in check right now.
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@Anya: me too! But there are only a million members there, and 300 mil in the US, so....
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@Mrs. Lemon-Lime: here's more on the story-- https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/06/trump-protester-i-was-beaten-for-holding-a-republicans-against-trump-sign a peaceful republicans against trump protestor was beaten by the crowd after trump called him out and someone shouted gun when there was no weapon.
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I'm personally terrified that it is going to turn out like the primaries where people wouldn't admit to voting for Trump because they're too ashamed.
My parents couldn't bring themselves to actually say they voted for Trump, but luckily they're in a staunchly blue state, so I'm not worried.
My state is very red, but an independent has been close to Trump in the polls, so that's where my vote is going. Here's hoping it doesn't go down in flames.
but maybe we wouldn't have invaded Iraq that had nothing to do with it. Maybe there would be no ISIS, no civil war in Syria, no Trump. But that's all just guesswork. Got to keep moving forward.
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