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I don't think you ever *know* but there are millions of articles about trends. For example, C's name falls into the 'old fashioned' trend that's happening- I don't expect it to reach top 20 or anything, but I do anticipate it getting more popular than it is right now.

Then again, I was so surprised to see Noah at #1 for a boy! I wanted to avoid top ten names, preferably top 20, but beyond that I am not really fussed about it one way or another.

I think it's hard to tell... the only possible indicator is if its started creeping up in popularity the last few years or something.

@Foodnerd81 is right that there are tons of articles about this. Aside from those, one thing I find helpful is looking at the charts from NameVoyager at babynamewizard.com and looking at how steeply the name has gained momentum. A slow and steady gain is less likely to jump than a name that's made a sudden spike in the last few years/decade.

ETA: I know a Declan my age and think it's a great name that wears well, fwiw. I do think it will continue to rise - it hits several trends (2 syllable, ends with -n names, Irish names, etc). How popular is too popular for you?

I also think it is important to keep in mind that the internet didn't exist when we were born. Our parents didn't have the data we have now. My friend's parents name her Kristen because they thought it was unique and they didn't know anyone else with that name. It ended up being one of the most popular names the year she was born.

The top ten names make up a much smaller percentage of births then they did 20, 30 years ago.

The flip side is that we are aware of tons more names. I don't know anyone with the name Declan in real life, but I've heard the name a ton online so I might believe it is more popular than it actually is.

Just providing a little perspective. I don't know if there is a way to predict the rise of a name. What's the saying, "Past performance is no guarantee of a future result".

@TemperanceBrennan: my parents had the same conversation as your friends, and gave me the same name.

@stargal: Hmm, I mean, it's obviously already more popular than that, although @TemperanceBrennan is right that popular isn't what it used to be in terms of lots of kids sharing a name in one classroom. I think it's going to rise, and I think it will end up at least in the top 100. I'm a believer in using a name anyway if you love it, but your priorities might be different! I wonder if you might like the name Eamon? Similar feel to Declan but popularity more like Pierson.
@Mae: That's exactly the chart I was referring to!

@Foodnerd81: Ha! Are you from STL? My parents thought they gave me a popular name, and it was according to my birth year, but I never had someone in my class with the same name, but my friend was always Kristen X. She went through a phase where she pronounced it Ker-sten to be different.

@stargal: Keep in mind too, like others have said, that the distribution of names is far wider now than it was when we were kids. This site shows you how many babies are actually born every year with a given name: http://www.ourbabynamer.com/ It isn't updated for 2013 yet, but in 2012 only about 2700 baby boys in the entire US were named Declan. Which is only 13 of every 10,000.

I don't know, I keep hearing the name Declan online, but when I told people we would be using it for our son I got a LOT of reactions as if I'm crazy and just totally made up that name! I think a lot of it depends on the area you live in - I don't know anyone who has used most of the top 5 baby names. And yeah like Mae said...13 out of 10,000 kids is really not a lot.

Name geeks would think that my second daughter's name is rising to the top. And yes it has now cracked the top 1000, but only 50 kids were named that in her both year and 80 last year. So yeah, huge spike but some names will never be super popular. I can't see Declan being top ten, but maybe top 100?

We have some friends that named their LO "Declan." I seriously considered it for LO, but went with another popular name. I'd say the name is rising in popularity, but not much. Also, it's a pretty old school traditional name, so it's not like it's a new one or a new variation.

@ShootingStar: How else do they pronounce it?!

I love the name Declan! Just had a close friend use it, so I doubt we will.

It's funny - I really liked the name Declan before we got pregnant, but the only person I knew with the name was a homeless person.

Also, Abigail and Madeline. I loooved those names as a kid, and now they are climbing the charts!

Five or six years ago I knew a kid named Henry and thought the name seemed so out of place among all the Aidens and Bradens and Owens. Now I know a bunch of Henrys and tried to talk DH into it!

So there must be bigger forces at play, like with any trend (chocolate covered bacon? maxi skirts?) Why does something start sounding good to everyone that a few years ago would have been "eh?"

I think some super expert could probably analyze trends like certain sounds that become popular (like boys names ending in -en for a few years there, or now with girls names ending in -a), regions of the world (Irish names, anyone?), time periods (no one wants to name names from their parents' generation, but two or three back seems cool).

So as all those things become trendy, we all start liking names like Declan, and Finnegan, and Emma and then get annoyed when they become popular because, hey, I liked it first! (Or maybe that's just me?)

@ShootingStar: I wouldn't mind if my kid's name got more popular, too! I feel like I'm the only one, haha. But we get "oh, that's unique" sometimes.

His name is Gene. Not that out there!

@daniellemybelle: I think you are safe on this one. It is very popular, but I think it is on the 100 year cycle rather than being an Elizabeth or an Isabella which would have a tendency to stay at the top through multiple historical periods.

And I love it. It's so cute and spunky.

@daniellemybelle: that's how I felt about our first daughter's name when Pam and Jim on the office used the name right around the time our daughter was born. It jumped several points, but then settled right back to the mid 200's.