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@runnerd: H is 27 months and fits just fine into the 18 month coat my mom got her last winter. So it's possible that he will fit into it next year, but it depends on his body type. H has a long torso, so no way will she fit it next year because it will be too short.

My son is 2 (this week! Time flies!) and is wearing a 12-18 month coat. We bought him a 2T coat on sale assuming he'll be able to wear it next winter. Barring a growth spurt, I think you'll be ok.

My smallish 4 year old is wearing her last year's winter coat. I would not be surprised if it fit her next winter. And of course I have another one ready for when she grows, but I'm about to loan it out to a larger friend.

I think so. DS1 was really small to start and when he was 18m was wearing 12-18 and SOME 18-24, but probably around age 2 started wearing the year of his size. I want to say at 18 months he was maybe 20 lbs? And then at age 2, maybe 23.5/24 lbs? He's 3.5 (at his 3 year visit he was 27.5 lbs and 36 inches) and solidly in 3T everything (though of course, pants have to have hidden cinch waists). His Patagonia is even 4T and definitely a little big, but they are so expensive we wanted him to wear it for 2 seasons.