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Hmm this is a tough one because some people really do not show at that time and others do. It all just depends on many factors including body type. Personally, I was not showing at that time and could fit in all of my pre-pregnancy clothes (except jeans).

Do you have any other weddings this year that you could use a maternity dress for? If so, then it may be worth it to look into other options.

I agree it depends on how you're built. I wasn't "showing" at 12 weeks but I felt bigger for sure. I had more weight around the belly though to start with.

To me, black tie is a REALLY fancy dress, usually long. If you can wear a maternity dress multiple times during your pregnancy and it's still appropriate for black tie, then I say get one! Otherwise, I think just get a simple black tie dress that has a little extra room in the torso how it's cut. I was in my sister's wedding at 12 1/2 weeks, and I wore an empire waist dress- I had the extra room and no one would be able to scrutinize. A non-maternity dress that's built to be more forgiving in that area would be great not just for a good part of your pregnancy, but also post-preg. You may bounce back in a snap, or you may be like me and um... NOT. haha! It's good to have looser items like that for PP time.

Congrats! And good luck finding something!